Gartner's 25% Search-Volume Drop by End of 2026: What to Model For
In February 2024, Gartner forecast a 25% drop in traditional search engine volume by the end of 2026, driven by AI chatbots and other virtual agents. Two years later, the forecast is still being cited at board meetings — usually as a scare quote, sometimes as a justification for buying an AI visibility tool, rarely as the input to an actual model. That last use case is the most interesting. A 25% channel contraction is a planning constraint; if you do not convert the headline into a spreadsheet, the number bounces off the strategy without landing.